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East-West
Obama's Afghanistan Problem and its future
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
By A.K. Enamul Haque PhD
With Philip Shaw M.Sc.
The world has changed again. After a relative calm, since the end of the Bush era, Pakistan and Afghanistan are again bleeding. The people of Afghanistan have been in a quagmire since the Soviet invasion of the country. Soviet occupied Afghanistan had established a Communist led government in Kabul. To the western mind it was a gross injustice upon the people of Afghanistan. So the U.S. -led anti-Communist forces were trained and supported for as long as ten years to drive the Soviets out. These anti-Communist forces were none but the fanatic Muslim groups called "the Taliban"- meaning a group of students in the Islamic schools. From day one, The Taliban never lied to their master or to the people because they always believed in creating an economic system based on Islamic rules. It was in their programs, it was in their writings. The CIA and the Pakistani intelligence were fully aware of the Taliban agenda and yet they supported them on the plea that they are better than the Communist.
After the fall of the Soviet led government in Kabul the Islamist group took control of the capital and introduced Shariah law throughout Afghanistan. It was not what the large majority of Afghans wanted either but it was clearly imposed upon them by the US and Pakistan governments. Very soon, the US government (after the 9/11) realized their mistakes and decided to overturn it. This time they decided to rope in with the ex-soviets (now Russians) and decided to establish a new government in Kabul – the Karzai government. Clearly, this is also against the general will of the people. Meanwhile, 20 years have passed. The child who was born during the Soviet time is now a young man – can he tolerate such interventions by foreign countries?
The Taliban took advantage of the situation and have again received support from the masses. They have gained strength and are now capable of striking the so-called formidable army led by NATO. Just after the election win by Obama, the US generals admitted that the Taliban couldn't be defeated militarily. The US state department went so far to explain the difference between the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda forces. To them, the Taliban are fighting for ousting the foreign troops from Afghanistan while Al-Qaeda was trying to strike US interests worldwide. The distinction is real but it is too late for US forces now. The Taliban are already strongly based throughout Afghanistan and also in Pakistan. With the Taliban not in power, they can claim that they would do better than these so-called puppet governments! They are clever in using the mindset of the general public who are against foreign interventions in the region. The Taliban, being not in power, also do not need to prove their efficiency in running the economy while others are failing miserably. The governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan are now labeled by the west as some of the most corrupt governments of the world.
Against this backdrop, US policy makers have now made another mistake by targeting the Taliban in Pakistan. True the Taliban are stronger in Pakistan now but why? Is it because they have more support from within Pakistanis? If so, why are Pakistanis supporting them? The answer is again simple, any foreign presence in the region, establishment of puppet governments in Pakistan (led by Musharraf) have fuelled the situation. The Taliban used this to regain both sympathy and support from the general public. As a result, Pakistan now has a major political problem. The problem of the Taliban has moved east. Next? India, I believe.
I remember in 1986, I told Phil that US support for the Muslim fundamentalists in Afghanistan will backfire on them. It is not right and it is not expected. It clearly shows the bankruptcy of the western policy. Even today, trying to use military power to contain the Taliban either directly by NATO forces or indirectly by Pakistani army will backfire again. Please beware of this.
In absence of US involvement in the region, the Taliban would have lost public support anyway. The people of Afghanistan would have overthrown the government but because of foreign presence the situation has turned around. Remember, freedom-loving nations will not tolerate foreign occupation no matter how good it is. Hopefully, somebody will listen. To me, the strategy should be to leave Afghanistan as quickly as possible and contain the Taliban within Afghanistan. Let them run a government in Kabul and fail! If however, they succeed, then the west must take a lesson. Understand the causes of success and internalize them to stop further expansion.
Rationalizing Afghanistan: Remember, the People in the Congo Bleed Too.
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.
We have talked about Afghanistan many times in this column. In many ways I don't think the twain will ever meet with regard to this issue. Dr. Haque is very consistent with what he has said about Afghanistan through the years. I remember very clearly Dr. Haque telling me while we were students that the American support of the Muslim fundamentalists in Afghanistan against the Soviets was a very terrible thing. Enamul is still saying that 20 years down the road and you have to give him credit for it. Yes, he is right foreign intervention into Afghanistan has never worked.
I am on the record a few months ago in this column saying that I thought Canadian participation in the Afghan mission needs to come to an end. I think that because I do not believe the Taliban can be defeated or are going to go away. I don't think Canadian farm boys and girls currently fighting in Afghanistan need to make the supreme sacrifice for us back home. I cannot see an endgame to the Afghanistan equation, which is good for Canada or for NATO. I think everybody is getting on that page in the Western world right now, however 911 changed everything and it's not fair to look at the Afghanistan situation now without looking through the lense of 911.
Simply put when old world problems were inflicted on North America on 911 there had to be payback for that. That is the reason that NATO is in Afghanistan trying to take care of problems before they arrive on western shores. We may debate about that forever, but that is the reason. Yes it's almost like Australians fighting in Gallipoli during World War I, it made no sense to people in the outback back home. Ditto for any Canadian farmboy fighting near Kandahar to keep me safe in southwestern Ontario.
I have real trouble with this and the reason I do is my old axiom that people in the Congo bleed too. What is so reprehensible to Western governments is the treatment of women and sharia law in fundamentalist Muslim lands. For instance I have a real problem when Dr. Haque muses about accountability of the Taliban and how the people are accepting of them. Many would argue in Western society that women in Afghan society do not get a voice and are treated poorly. Believe what you want about that, but the optics of it in Western society are a nonstarter. The last time I checked there were no female mujahedin helping the Taliban cause. This is a cultural chasm which cannot be overlooked.
Of course my question is eight years after 911 how is this conflict so important versus the conflict in Kashmir or the conflict in the Congo or even the Palestinian Israeli conflict in the Middle East? I grow weary of having a NATO presence in Afghanistan but millions of people can die in the Congo and the world yawns. Let's be real here. The reason there is such a microscope on Afghanistan and the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan is because of 911 and the strategic interest the big powers have in preventing it again.
I believe Dr. Haque to be very right about what should be done in Afghanistan. Basically he's musing about getting foreign powers out of Afghanistan and letting the Taliban succeed or fail on its own merits. I have no problem with that in fact it is preferable I'm sure to many people. However the problem is Al Qaeda muddies the water. They have showed no mercy even to the Muslim people who they say they support. This makes the solution that Dr. Haque purports very difficult to succeed. The Taliban have never repudiated Al Qaeda and that means there'll always be a greater problem.
Of course there is no easy answer to this. Dr. Haque is right in his contention that freedom loving nations cannot stand foreign intervention. The problem is we all know it's not going to end this way, at least in the short term. Domestic politics in Pakistan and Afghanistan will make sure of that. However the challenge for the West is to get this right and that will eventually mean a complete exit from the region. When that will happen I don't know. However, from my perch here in Canada you can certainly see it coming.
East/West is a joint column written by A.K. Enamul Haque and Philip Shaw. Dr. A.K.Enamul Haque Ph.D, is a Professor of Economics at United International University. Philip Shaw M.Sc. is farmer, writer and broadcaster in Dresden, Ontario, Canada. Each month they will bring their uniquely East/West perspectives to specific topics of world interest.
