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People in the Congo Bleed The Same As Those In Iraq.
Tuesday, May 6, 2003
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.Things seem better now. From my perch here in the west, our American neighbours have taken care of business in Iraq. Iraq has become so mundane in western media circles; it's been replaced by the heinous murder of a California woman, Laci Peterson and her baby. With no embedded reporters riding Bradley fighting vehicles, our news channels are looking for the sensational. But nothing could replace news "live from the front."
Winning the peace surely won't be as spectacular. But that is exactly what the Americans and their coalition allies will now have to achieve. Their victory over the Saddam Hussein regime was stunning in its speed and precision. Three weeks was all it took. In the 1980's, the Iranians took eight years with 500,000 deaths and only got 10 kilometres inside Iraq. That fact alone has other regimes in the area shaking their heads.
Syria and Iran have drawn the ire of the Americans in recent days. Both share large land borders with Iraq. Many fugitives from the old Iraqi regime looked toward Syria for protection. The Americans complained loudly to Syria about this and since then, the Syrians have been more compliant. Clearly, both Tehran and Damascus know a military replay of what happened in Iraq could happen to them too. How this will change the dynamic of this volatile region is the million-dollar question.
Many pundits have looked at the new Iraq as an American client state serving American interests. And they may be right. In the west, Saddam Hussein was seen as a supporter of terrorism, especially against Israel. In the bizarre world of American/Israel relations, the loss of Saddam is seen as a real victory which should further the peace process. When you add those huge oil reserves to the equation, leaders of the developed world are salivating at the possibilities.
But nothing ever turns out the way you think it should. Iraq has some real problems, one of them being its ethnic and religious divisions. Iraq is not very old. It was cobbled together by the British after World War I. They proclaimed the three Mesopotamian provinces of Baghdad, Basra and Mosul as Iraq. Since then, from time to time, the Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Chaldean Christians and Marsh Arabs have been at each other's throats. But their real problems have always been with unrepresentative and often oppressive dictators. And when it hasn't been that, it's been foreign occupiers.
So with the retired American general Jay Garner now in Iraq to head up an interim administration, why should we expect anything different? It is a legitimate question I'm sure many people in Iraq are now asking themselves. But with the burst of freedom the Americans have brought, we've seen religious and ethnic groups flex their collective wills. Living together in a successful, secular and free Iraq may prove to be as difficult as it did in the former Yugoslavia.
Proponents of the new Iraq look at democracies like Turkey, Malaysia and to a lesser extent, Singapore as examples of countries that can pull themselves out of desperate situations, embrace the rule of law, liberalize their economies and translate all of that into democracy. With Iraq's oil wealth and the right type of direction, it could turn into an economic dynamo.
But how does all of this affect the Democratic Republic of the Congo? Huh? That's right, I said the Democratic Republic of the Congo! Over the last three years, almost 3 million people have died there from what's called Africa's world war. Just three weeks ago, there was another massacre in the Congo by "troops" who couldn't really be identified. It's all been going on "under the radar" of the world's press, which has been fixated on the war in Iraq.
So you see, our Iraqi fixation has everything to do with western strategic and economic interests. If there was oil in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and it was strategically placed near the Middle East, all heck might break loose. However, the world yawns at places like the Congo. Our media sources here in the west probably couldn't even point that out on a map. It's a shame. Those people in the Congo bleed the same as those in Iraq.
At the end of the day, the world moves on. Iraq will churn and pulse in the next few months and hopefully there will be a happy ending. That might be years away. But make no mistake. If there is a place in the world where the United States has a strategic interest, they will get their way. Iraq is the latest manifestation of that.
Fall Out of War Might Prove Beneficial
By Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque
My friend Phil has nicely ended his writing on the US victory over Iraq. The victory itself was not surprising to any of us. Indeed both of us predicted (like many others, of course) an easy victory before the war started. My prediction was off by a week. However, I do not want to claim to be one of those Indian palmists who can tell your future!
If anything, this war has taught us that smaller and weaker nations should be careful. There are two ways you can protect your sovereignty – like Kuwait where you become the friend of the USA and second by being an ally with the US in world politics. The US being the only superpower in the world can prevail against any kind of odds but others cannot.
When the troops were in Basra, we all heard that the Iraqi Republican Guards would be able to fight with the US marines. It did not happen. When US troops were in Karbala, one of the holiest places, we heard that the Iraqi Army would put up a fight. This did not happen. Indeed, none of these elite forces could do much against US forces. Only the fedayeens (Saddam's suicide troops) were brave enough to show some resistance. The troops were expecting wreaths of flowers waiting for them in Baghdad but unfortunately this did not happen either. Finally, the US sent a retired general to become the administrator of Iraq, not even an ethnic Iraqi.
All these events did not come as a surprise. In fact, I can imagine some more events. Innocent Iraqis will be killed because they look like terrorists. Iraq will be out of OPEC. Once a new Iraqi civil administration is set up, they will "request" US troops to stay on in Iraq as a gesture of goodwill.
As this war was fought on the TV screens, I believe that the fall out of the conflict is more beneficial to mankind than all other wars in the history of warfare. Consider the wars in Africa – since there are no "embedded" journalists, we do not worry about them. We do not analyze them every evening, and we do not pray for them either. This is true for the people of Chechnya and it is also true for the Afghans.
Having said all this, it will be soon that Baghdad will be off our airwaves. Other new events will take place and it will be forgotten again. SARS has taken its place already. In other words, suddenly, we realized that war in Baghdad is less interesting than SARS. Analysts have already started changing their emphasis – the impact of SARS on the economy! If we look at the number of deaths from SARS and the Iraq war, we will quickly realize that Baghdad should not have been forgotten so soon. Yet we did.
Given this, how can we claim that the war was beneficial to all of us!
First, the world will enjoy cheap oil for many years to come. Iraq will probably get out of OPEC and rebuild its economy (or civilization!) as quickly as they can. If they stay within OPEC, the production quota would be a big problem (unless, of course, OPEC decides to give a better share to rebuild Iraq). Clearly, reconstruction and rebuilding needs are there so restrictions on production of oil will not help Iraq.
Second, future conflicts in the world will be more predictable. No one would dare to question the "wisdom" of the President of the United States of America. His "will" is ours. All in the rest of the world should listen to his sermons and should probably "read his lips". Nations will not need to spend millions of dollars on espionage.
Third, the world is now set for new order. The order is "either you are with me or against me". Countries of the world will soon realize this. The nations who failed to come forward to support the US invasion on Iraq should be very careful from now on. There are many weapons – aid will be cut, food will be short, trade will be stunted and so on.
Fourth, in future, no country should accept a UN team of inspectors on their soil to inspect any defense establishments. The trick is clear. UN inspectors will pass the information to US intelligence; there will be no secrets (like we have no secrets in front of God!). The UN as a body will create reports, pass reports to the US who will take actions to implement UN resolutions.
Fifth, we have a new meaning of the word "weapons of mass destruction" - it is a phrase used to confuse the world and to reduce a nation under rubble.
Sixth, in any conflict, he who loses will be regarded as the criminal. Crime is defined as the work of the weaker group of people against the interest of the stronger. This is a new paradigm of morality. When Saddam killed his people with deadly weapons (and he was the winning power), even the US stood by it and supplied the ammunitions. When Saddam killed the Iranians (and he was the winning power), the US was laughing. For years, the US was busy supplying the weapons. Now that he is the loser, if he is found, he will be tried for crimes against humanity! Many of the dictators of the world will now begin to dine with US leaders and listen to US advice so that their crimes go undetected.
Seventh, if you want to kill your opponent in developing countries, label them as Osama's friend. You will have your way. You can now kill anybody and still find your hands clean. So, the ruthless dictators in many developing countries can stay for longer years.
I surely think that with these lessons in hand, we will live in a better world in years to come.
East/West is a joint column written by A.K. Enamul Haque and Philip Shaw. Dr. A.K.Enamul Haque Ph.D, is a Professor of Economics at United International University. Philip Shaw M.Sc. is farmer, writer and broadcaster in Dresden, Ontario, Canada. Each month they will bring their uniquely East/West perspectives to specific topics of world interest.
