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At Issue
War Is Messy and So Might Be the Peace
Tuesday, April 15, 2003
If you are regular reader of this column, you'll remember the night I flew over Baghdad. It was a couple of months ago now and the spooky feeling that gave me has since faded. But as I watched the looting and chaos in that city this past week, I could only have empathy for those people. War is messy and their predicament is a result of that.They will have a long road back. Everything that we take for granted with regard to civil society has to be recast. Iraq is not Afghanistan. It is a more modern society, rich from oil. Just how things are going to play out, I don't know. The Americans will certainly have a challenge on their hands when the nation building starts. In the next few weeks, we should find out what their plans are.
Gulf War II is surely moving to its final stages. As bad as war is, there have been many good things happen this time. There were no missiles hurled toward Israel. So far, there have been no weapons of mass destruction. The oil fields haven't gone up in smoke. The death toll hasn't been as high as predicted. The Iraqi port of Umm Qasr has been cleared of mines and is now the scene of humanitarian aid shipments.
It soon will be home to a lot of American and Australian grain. Earlier this month the Americans loaded a couple of ships, the M/V Free Atlas and the M/V Yellow Rose in Galveston, Texas bound for Umm Qasr. The ships were loaded with over 55,000 metric tones of bulk hard winter wheat. That's a drop on the frying pan within the world wheat market, but symbolism will surely go a long way.
The wheat shipment in the Free Atlas is enough to feed 4.5 million Iraqis for one month. It's only a portion of the total food aid the U.S. government is providing to the Iraqi people. The U.S. will supply up to 610,000 metric tons of food worth $300 million to feed the Iraqi people. A supplementary $260 million is being provided to the U.N. World Food Program for food distribution and logistical support. It'll be a big help to get Iraq on its feet again.
But if war is messy, the peace will certainly be a challenge. Iraq is not a "natural" country. It was cobbled together by the British early in the last century. The main ethnic groups are the Shiites and Sunnis in the lower two thirds of the country and the Kurds in the north. Saddam Hussein brutally forced these people to live in his country. Now that that has come to an end, there will definitely be increased racial tension in many parts of the country.
If I was Syria, I'd be looking over my shoulder. Syria has always been labeled by the US as a sponsor of terrorism. Now, the Americans are accusing the Syrians of harbouring some of the senior Iraqi leadership and developing weapons of mass destruction. Syria suddenly finds itself between Israel on its western border and the now American friendly Iraq on its east border. It's a reality I'm sure the Syrians couldn't have imagined in a pre-911 world.
But of course, it's now the post 911 world and things have really changed. If you look at the map of the world, trouble spots in the Middle East and South Asia have really changed. Having a western friendly Iraq and Afghanistan should lead to greater political stability in the region. This should foster economic growth and a more stable supply of oil for western economies.
Of course, many would say that's a very simplistic view of what is going on. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarek said the war in Iraq would result in 100's of "bin Laden's". In the Arab world, Al Jazeera, the Arab CNN had wall to wall war coverage from a different perspective. Collateral damage and civilian deaths were more emphasized in their coverage. With their blanket market penetration throughout the Arab world, Al Jazeera surely forged memories which will make it hard for their viewers to forgive coalition forces. Muslims bleed too.
Canada sat out this war. That decision was a struggle for a lot of people. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Chretien has said that Canada will contribute to the reconstruction of Iraq. Who knows, it might mean some Canadian wheat will show up in Umm Qasr, just like those other ships. We are a compassionate people. The images out of Iraq will only reinforce that. Hopefully, Canadian help is on the way.
Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.
