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At Issue

With Philip Shaw

Federal Liberals Setting Up for Another Long Run

Tuesday, April 22, 2003

In the 1990 provincial election, media types trying to label him a "socialist" hounded NDP leader Bob Rae. It was a funny time for the NDP. They had never come close to government in Ontario, but as the Liberals melted, the NDP gained strength all across Ontario. In a last ditch attempt to derail the NDP, throwing the "socialist" label at him was all his opponents had left.
On cue, Bob Rae finally answered his critics. He said he was a socialist, knowing the label didn't have the negative resonance it once had. A few days later, he would be Premier. It was the high water mark for the NDP in Ontario.
In retrospect, you could see how silly it was to "label" Rae as a socialist. The point being, whoever is doing the "labeling" may think a socialist is anything they want it to be. Ditto for anybody else. As former leader of the Reform party, Preston Manning once said, "An extremist is anybody who disagrees with a Liberal".
I think Manning is right, especially in the political environment Canadians find themselves in. The Liberal party has been popular for so long, many of their MPs act as if they shouldn't be questioned. At the same time, the conservative movement in this country is so fractured; it makes it hard to take them seriously. It creates a political atmosphere, which isn't good for the country.
As it stands now, I believe the Liberals will win the next federal election easily. With Jean Charest elected Premier of Quebec, the federal Bloc Quebecois days are numbered. When Paul Martin assumes the leadership of the Liberal party in November, the coast will be clear for a Liberal sweep of Quebec. Add those seats to their domination in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and Paul Martin's Liberals look even stronger The opposition parties need to get their act together.
If they don't, they are doomed again. Case in point is the Canadian Alliance. I have a lot of respect for their political movement but I question many of the issues which they stand up for. One such issue is gun control. Garry Breitkreuz, the Alliance MP from Saskatchewan, recently spoke on this issue in Wallaceburg.
As an election issue winner, gun control is a dead duck. In fact, it's even worse than that. Urban Canadians don't have any understanding about "gun control" other than guns are bad and nobody should have them. Rural Canadians on the other hand look at guns as part of their way of life. Having said that, gender differences on the issue are vast. Females, whether rural or urban, support gun control. So opposing gun control is an election issue dead zone. The Liberal party knows that in their sleep.
That's why the gun registry which was suppose to cost $2 million but really costs $1 billion plus gets Liberal support. Yes, it's off the stupid meter in terms of cost overruns, but it doesn't register with urban voters. But the Canadian Alliance insists on making political hay off the Liberal gun registry. Even though they've got a real point, politically it has no life. Every time Garry Breitkreuz speaks about it, Liberals gain strength.
But he or anybody else in the Alliance, shouldn't be labeled "extremists" because of that. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen. "Gun Nuts" is a term commonly used to describe some Alliance supporters among the mainstream media. Even though it is very untrue, people who don't own guns see it that way.
But I don’t expect the Alliance to drop this issue. But I'd do it in a minute. Preston Manning challenged these people to think big and he was right. The secret to any "conservative" success in this country is to win seats in Quebec and Ontario. Espousing the gun registry issue is a sure way for this not to happen.
So if the Alliance and Progressive Conservatives and nationalists left over from the Bloc can get together before the next election, they might have a fighting chance. But all these groups disagree about so much, gun control included. It leaves Paul Martin in the enviable position of pushing a centrist left vision with a refreshing face. The conservative movement will be left hoping the NDP and Jack Layton can attack his left flank sending vote splits their way.
The reality of any one of these scenarios seems implausible. But as I've said many times, some day the Liberals are going to lose. Laurier, King, St.Laurent, and Trudeau all faced defeat and so will this current group. When is the million-dollar question? I don’t see it any time soon.



Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.