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If I was a Betting Man, I'd Take Chretien
Tuesday, October 1, 2002
The first time I met Jean Chretien was in 1979. I was a student at the University of Guelph and Chretien was an opposition politician. He was visiting Guelph during the 1979 election campaign. I went to see him speak.I was with a friend who was a "died in the wool" Tory. After Mr. Chretien's speech we approached the stage, my friend wanting to ask a question. As Chretien came down off the stage my friend pounced with what he considered a hard question. Chretien shot back at my friend by telling him when he was finance minister in the Trudeau government, he didn't have the problems Joe Clark did. He quickly left us behind, my friend metaphorically dropping down the trap door underneath him.
Twenty-three years later, Chretien is sailing toward retirement. But on Monday there will be a new speech from the throne, initiating another parliamentary session. Canadians should brace themselves for some old fashion "Liberal" platitudes coming from the governor general. As Chretien leaves the stage, he's planning his legacy. Social spending, like that of past Liberal administrations will probably be back, big time.
There are a number of issues which I think you'll see in Monday's throne speech. Aboriginal issues, child welfare issues, urban issues and the old favourites of health, education and welfare should get some play. With the Liberals running constant surpluses over the last few years, the Prime Minister definitely is sending signals for the final seventeen months of his leadership.
I expect to see a boost in foreign aid, a new ethics package, new policies preparing us for Kyoto and an increase in the child tax credit. that will be enough to send Canada's fractured opposition into hysterics. With Finance Minister John Manley being somewhat coy regarding future fiscal projections, it will only add fuel to the opposition fire.
What will make this session really interesting will be the state of the Liberal party. What we have is a sitting Prime Minister setting policy with a future Prime Minister sitting in the back bench. Paul Martin has a huge following in the Liberal party and he and his supporters will surely not want to buy into policy which they have no stomach for. Ratifying the Kyoto protocol might be one such policy.
The Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. The nations that signed the protocol promised to reduce greenhouse gases six percent below 1990 levels by 2012. At the time, 2012 was a long way away. But now, it's only ten years away and plans must be put in place to deal with the commitment. Chretien's recent South Africa declaration to ratify Kyoto was a signal that he wants Canada on side.
The problem with this is not everybody agrees. The Alberta premier, Ralph Klein, has launched a national campaign against Kyoto. His fear is "big oil" cannot meet some of the criteria which might be required by 2012. The oil industry equates Kyoto with job losses and higher costs. At the same time, Premier Ernie Eves is doing a bit of fence sitting at the same time. He certainly doesn't want to see job losses in Ontario. And you can bet Paul Martin is not big on falling on the sword for Kyoto when there is this much controversy.
But if I was a betting man, I'd bet on Chretien. He's been underestimated at almost every moment of his career. Why should he be second guessed now, when essentially he's still the man in our first past the post parliamentary system? His political opposition still resembles an inept mob, never being able to pin a thing on him. At the end of next year, as Chretien prepares to depart, I wouldn't be surprised if he achieves everything announced in the throne speech. He's that good of a politician.
The second and last time I met Jean Chretien was in 1987. Once again, it was at Guelph. This time, I was a graduate student completing my Masters' Degree in Agricultural Economics and Business. Chretien was a private citizen, having left the Liberal caucus of John Turner. After his speech, once again, I approached the stage to meet this man. This time there was no hard questions about policy. There were only a few of us there.
I wanted his autograph so I gave him my wallet to sign my ticket stub on. He took the wallet, signed my ticket and put my wallet in his pocket. Everyone laughed. I didn't really know what to say. In the end, he smiled and gave me my wallet back. And that's a good thing. Maybe after Monday's throne speech, I'll really need it.
Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.
