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At Issue
Prime Minister Paul Martin Isn't Getting Any Younger
Tuesday, December 16, 2003
The Liberal party has dominated politics at the federal level for many years. Brian Mulroney and John Diefenbaker aside, the Liberals have been successful in capturing the centre of the political spectrum for many years. Our new Prime Minister Paul Martin is squarely in the same mold. Looking at the numbers, he's setting up for an electoral victory of historic proportions.That is, if he doesn't stumble and stumble bad. Here is what I mean. In Quebec there are 75 electoral seats. In the 2000 election, the Bloc Quebecois won 38 of them. In Ontario, there are 103 seats, 98 of them in the Liberal fold. Both provinces will probably have more seats after the electoral boundary act is past.
In Quebec, the Bloc is disintegrating. Many of their members have already quit or joined the Liberals. It is conceivable that Paul Martin may take almost all of the 75 plus seats next election. In Ontario Jack Layton and the new Conservatives may pry away 20 seats, but that still leaves 80 plus for Paul Martin. Add those 80 to Quebec's 75 plus and its over. The poll numbers tell us this. That's why every journalist worth his or her salt is taking that for granted.
But in many ways, it's a lame way of going about things. Some journalistic scribblers are getting down right lazy, simply because they can read poll numbers. Your loyal scribe can read those numbers too, but I also know even in this political environment lightning can strike. Every day, the Liberal party is closer to defeat. When that will happen is anybody's guess.
It sure doesn't look like it will be on Paul Martin's watch. Ignoring the numbers for a minute (even though you can't) Paul Martin will have some new challenges. Jack Layton and the NDP on the left and whoever takes over on the conservative right will surely throw a proverbial ice ball Martin won't expect. With a federal cabinet rife with green horns, this might come sooner than later.
I think Jack Layton's NDP are an interesting watch. Nationally they are at 17.5% in the polls. But if you take Quebec out of those numbers where the NDP is moribund, those numbers are much higher in English Canada and vote rich Ontario. Martin has conservative tendencies, which were manifested as Jean Chretien's deficit fighting finance minister. That should make room for Layton's NDP to gain on the Liberal left.
To do that, Layton will have to drift toward the political centre, which is hard to do for some elements of the NDP. To make a real impact the NDP need to get back to the level of seats (44) they had in former leader Ed Broadbent's time. The problem for the NDP is parts of the radical left still hold power in that party and that frightens the mainstream voter. Folks might like to "choose change", but as NDP provincial leader Howard Hampton found out, that means voting Liberal.
One aspect of Martin's royal jelly the press is taking a pass on is his age. Martin is 65 years old. That's old for a leader going into his first election as Prime Minister. Over a five-year mandate, he'll reach 70, which puts him squarely where Jean Chretien was. So after one term, I don't think we can honestly expect him to continue. At that time, there will be a real Liberal horse race.
Paul Martin's age may become an election issue next spring. Simply put, he's from a completely different generation than prospective conservative leaders Peter McKay and Stephen Harper. Some people would argue that it's time for people from Harper and MacKay's generation. It may find resonance in the next election. Paul Martin's age is what it is. He isn't getting any younger.
The run up to the next election should be a good one. Paul Martin's government has so many new ministers; there surely will be some new policy as well as a few new scandals. The Conservatives have their own melodrama going to see who will lead this fractious bunch come spring. But something tells me the real test will be four or five years from now. With a 70-year-old Prime Minister, the political machinations of the last few months might look like child's play by then.
Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.
