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At Issue

With Philip Shaw

It\'s Almost Midnight: Who\'ll Be the Next US President?

Tuesday, November 2, 2004

I like George W. Bush, so that must mean I've lost many of you already. But I also like John Kerry. I think if elected he would make a fine President. It's finally here. As you read this our American friends are about to find out who will be their President.

It's been a very dirty campaign. I'm not sure if it's been any dirtier than some others, but the first post 9/11 election surely has polarized Americans. Over a divide you have George W. Bush and the Republicans who portray John Kerry and his allies as "Liberals" who are bad for America.

From a Canadian perspective, that's a bit hard to get used too. In this country the political perspective is just the opposite. If you are a "liberal" in Canada the general perception is that you are "balanced and good." But if you portray yourself as a "conservative" you are brandished an extremist, not to be trusted with many of Canada's cherished social institutions. Canada's media outlets led by the CBC have mainly bought into this argument.

In the United States, being a "conservative" is a growth industry especially in the media. My day job means I listen to a lot of radio. On the poltical right, Rush Limbaugh and his "Excellence in Broadcasting Network" flood my ears with the latest manifestations of the conservative agenda. Rush portrays John Kerry as a baby eating "liberal" who would hand the American government over to the United Nations.

I admire Rush, not for his views, but for his entertainment value. I know. Remember, I have my own radio commentary on CFCO in Chatham. In my mind Rush entertains more than he believes. It makes him rich. If I "entertained" on the radio as much as he does, I could easily quit my day job.

So on one side of the American ledger you have the God fearing, fiscally conservative, family values purporting Republicans versus the liberal, big government, soft on terrorism, anti-family Democrats. At least that is what some media outlets would lead you to believe. It keeps their cash registers ringing.

In the background is 9/11. What many Canadians don't understand is that 9/11 was a very personal tragedy for the Americans. Canadians can say anything they want, but the people who were attacked that day were Americans. That vulnerable feeling permeates their society. George W. Bush has capitalized on that feeling by portraying himself as the only one who can be trusted to defend America against the terrorists.

Unfortunately that little fact has made it particularly difficult for many other countries. Mr. Bush's rhetoric after 9/11 played at first, but when the US and Britain invaded Iraq, much post 9/11 sympathy for the United States evaporated. The Iraq war has not only divided America and its allies but also Americans themselves.

Iraq is the big issue of this election. What Canadians tend to forget is that we aren't involved in this fight. Almost every day Americans are dieing in Iraq, some who may be sons and daughters of my Americans readers. That fact alone has eroded support for President Bush. Many Americans are tired of being the world's policeman.

So for those watching from afar, Tuesday night is a flashpoint. The American election will probably have more of an effect on the Canadian economy than anything Prime Minister Paul Martin does. John Kerry if elected has said he will extend the US ban on Canadian beef. He doesn't even want to take garbage from Toronto.

But still I think John Kerry is a very smart man who would make a fine President. Clearly though, I think he would be far more protectionist than George Bush and even his predecessor Bill Clinton. The Americans believe free trade is whatever they want it to be and John Kerry will make sure of that. Canadians who overwhelmingly support Kerry might have some second thoughts if he ever becomes President.

We shall see. It's high stakes for us. But remember we need the Americans. They buy 80% of what our economy produces. So when you see or hear some self righteous Canadians berate our American friends don't listen to them. They are ignorant of the facts. Canadians don't hold any higher moral ground over the Americans.

So how about the outcome? It's almost midnight. I think the Electoral College will swing slightly toward George W. Bush. He'll get four more years. The world including Canada will just have to get used to it.



Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.