cktimes.ca Archives for At Issue


At Issue

With Philip Shaw

2003 Will Hold Many Surprises

Tuesday, December 31, 2002

As we careen into 2003, there is a lot to reflect on. A year ago at this time, everybody was still adjusting to Al Qaeda and the terrible events of September 11th, 2001. Now, Al Qaeda is on the run and our headlines have turned to other villains like Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction.
In many ways the Iraq thing is a media creation. Yes, Saddam is no choir boy but the world is full of dictators like him. The difference is guys like General Musharaff of Pakistan who have nukes and would surely use them is "our" choir boy. He might be India's nightmare but he's our guy fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Saddam doesn't have a lot of friends, plus he's sitting on a lot of oil. George Bush wants him gone and you can
bet next year at this time, I'll be recounting how the war went.
The only manifestation of this war problem at the local level is the price of gasoline. I remember back in the first Gulf war, when Iraq attacked Kuwait, local gas prices spiked. With the Americans sabre rattling, we've seen prices at the pump skyrocket. As soon as the bombs start dropping, the oil complex will get real nervous. With rumours of war endemic in our society, the faster we can get rid of fossil fuels the better.
Let's hope cooler heads prevail. There is nothing good about war. The Canadian role is yet to be defined but surely JTF-2 the Canadian special forces unit will be involved. With Iraq heating up, the Canadians might have to take more of a part fighting Al Qaeda. Even though they are wounded, the Bali bombing showed they still had reach.
2003 will surely hold some other surprises. But will one of them be a future Prime Minister not named Paul Martin? I hardly think so. But you never know. Paul Martin is no spring chicken. Add some wild cards coming out of Iraq and stranger things have happened. So although a surprise is possible, I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Come November 2003, Paul Martin should win the Liberal leadership.
If that happens, an election cannot be far behind. Prime Minister Chretien wants to stay on until February 2004. With Martin taking over, the smart money says another Liberal sweep. Martin is very popular in all parts of the country, especially Quebec. Wiping out the Bloc Quebecois will surely be in the cards if Martin wins.
The more interesting political story of 2003 will surely be on the provincial side. Ernie Eves has turned into the anti-Mike Harris. All it took was a rude awakening in the hydro bill. Rates are frozen until May of 2006. When is 2006? Who cares, it's just a long ways away. Eves doesn't want anything to do with fixing the hydro problem when there is a political future on the line. So he's done what every successive Premier has done since the lights went on in Ontario. He's passed the buck into the future. I only hope our kids have some money.
Of course, the real question will be who will win the spring provincial election. The polls say the Liberals will win the provincial election. That means Dalton McGuinty will be the next Premier. You can bet if that happens, Chatham-Kent's own, Pat Hoy, will have a cabinet post. That may be agriculture or it may be transport. Pat Hoy has fought the good fight for McGuinty, so if the Liberals do sweep out the PCs, Chatham-Kent will have a cabinet member.
The NDP has seen solid gains in the polls. Leader Howard Hampton has milked the hydro issue for every thing it would give. That has translated to a 22% poll rating which is the highest since Bob Rae broke through in 1990. The Conservatives will be hoping for renewed strength in the NDP. Anytime that happens, Conservatives break up the middle in vote splits.
It might be hard to tell here in Chatham-Kent, but the Ontario economy in 2003 should continue to expand and thrive. The problem is getting some of the growth from the GTA down this way. The Navistar closing in July will probably accentuate an already stagnant local economy. Hopefully rain will come to alleviate two years of drought on local farms.
Of course one of the best things that will happen in 2003, is more www.cktimes.ca. You can bet, I'll be here every week trying to make this world, seem a little bit simpler. Happy New Year everybody!



Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.