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At Issue

With Philip Shaw

Kyoto: Is it All Smoke and Mirrors?

Tuesday, January 14, 2003

Every year it is the same. I take out my old Dodge truck and turn the key. Cough, cough, cough, boom, boom verooommm. It starts up and then fills the air with smoke. It soon dissapates, but on initial startup, it's always the same. Having a day job on the farm, means my truck only gets a work out starting in April
I never much thought about it until the greenhouse gas issue and global warming came to the forefront at the beginning of the last decade. According to many scientists, when my Dodge truck sputters out all that exhaust, I'm adding to the destruction of the atmosphere. On the other side of the coin, there are lots of other people who say, all I'm doing is starting my truck.
In short, the debate about global warming rages on in many circles. Canada's greenhouse-gas emissions have risen every year in the 1990s, according to a new study released by Enviroment Canada. The study of gases believed to be the root cause of global warming shows emissions levels were13 per cent higher in 1997 than in 1990.
In the United States, over the same period, emissions increased 11 per cent. In Canada, it is estimated that 682 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases were pumped into the air in 1997, up from 601 million tonnes at the start of the decade. The primary culprits were increased fossil-fuel production and increases in transportation consumption by Canadians.
If you are looking for good news on this front, it is a bit of a dog's breakfast. Even though emissions are on the increase, the rate of increase in greenhouse-gas emissions has slowed slightly. Total emissions were up1.5 per cent from 1996 to 1997, after increasing 2.8 per cent the previous year.
Expounding on the ramifications about global warming are a bit like writing about Y2K. Except, at least with Y2K, there was a deadline. The problem with global warming is there is so much disagreement And until we start growing citrus fruit in Canada, it's a bit tough getting Canadians to take this thing seriously. I mean, when it is -40 degrees with a 60 km wind, it just doesn't sell.
Regardless of that, late last year the federal cabinet approved the Kyoto protocol. Now the implementation period is going to start. Surely there will be howls from all segments of our economy. The federal plans will be partly released in a future budget. Mr Chretien wants to go out in a blaze of clean air.
An earlier federal plan to achieve our Kyoto goals includes spending $955-million on measures to reduce emissions. This could include incentives to businesses that meet emission-cut targets and efforts to improve energy efficiency. Another $235-million would go toward improving Canada's scientific capability to understand what is happening to the world's climate, and $110-million would go toward determining how best to adapt to higher temperatures and the storms and erratic weather that would result.
So, is it all smoke, or is it all smoke and mirrors? Those are some pretty hefty number being bandied about. There is a lot of disagreement at the federal level regarding this strategy. John Manley will be walking a tight rope next month when he brings down the federal budget. Hawks on both sides of the issue will be ready to jump on him regardless of what's done. It's my bet that he'll never go for the $1.6 billion. There are just too many heavyweights in cabinet like Health Minister Anne McLellan who don't share the enviromentalist vision of a global warming calamity.
Like any lucky opportunist, I didn't know where I was on this issue until I found out my farm was a huge "carbon sink". And with the trading of Co2 contracts just starting south of the border, surely carbon cheques will be my newest "cash crop". That would turn me into a bleeding enviromentalist extolling the evils of global warming in a New York minute.
But, of course, at this time, that's still a theory too. There is something to this. The frustrating part is putting your finger on it.



Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.