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At Issue

With Philip Shaw

The Night I Flew Over Baghdad

Tuesday, March 18, 2003

This could be a week that changes the world. As I write this President George Bush has announced a 48 hour ultimatum on the regime of Saddam Hussein. If Saddam Hussein and his sons don't give up power and leave Iraq in the next 48 hours, the Americans and their allies will disarm them at an hour of their choosing. Clearly, when cktimes.ca is launched next Tuesday, our world could be very much different.
This is certainly not Sunday school. What we're talking about here is war. There is nothing good about that no matter how noble the cause is. War is messy and even though a swift American victory is probably in the cards, the unexpected always happens. War is darkness and we shouldn't expect anything different this time.
Canada has taken the position that this is America's war. There will be no Canadian participation in this Iraq war. Prime Minister Chretien made that announcement in the House of Commons last Monday. It was a brave pronouncement from a Liberal Prime Minister who heads a party which prides itself as standing up to the Americans. The only problem is 80% of our trade goes to the United States. What do you think the Americans are going to do the next time we have a little concern about soft wood lumber?
All of this is certainly making everybody a little bit edgy. In Chatham-Kent the hiccups from our American cousins are obvious. Whether you work in the auto industry or grow the occasional sugar beet, American markets are your life blood. Living in a country which isn't supporting this American action is enough to give one a little heartburn. If they wanted, the Americans could crush our economy like a bug.
Thankfully, that is unlikely to happen. There are too many jobs on the American side of the border which would be eliminated. So it is very unlikely these new tensions will cause real trade related problems between the United States and Canada. This proposed American action against Iraq will surely test Canadian patience. But we've been there before with Vietnam, Panama and Grenada. At the end of the day, even without Canadian support, the US Canada relationship will live on.
As I've said before, I have a hard time getting around on Gulf War II. In 1991, Saddam Hussien invaded Kuwait and a UN coalition led by the United States was formed to get them out. This time around, the UN security council couldn't come to a consensus on when weapons inspections would end. The US and its allies gave up last week to forge a second resolution to use force. The French and the Russians threatened a VETO which effectively
sandbagged any proposed resolution. So now we have an American coalition going it alone, not necessarily within the bounds of international law.
That's what makes it a tough one for me to get around on. I can just hear my colleague and fellow cktimes columnist Dr.A.K. Enamul Haque. He'd say the Americans aren't following international law. He'd say they have no right to invade a country without UN sanction. I might shoot back that Iraq hasn't complied with UN resolutions. He'd shoot back that Israel hasn't complied with those in 50 years! It would go on and on.
If you believe the Americans, a post Saddam Iraq would be good for global security. Think of Iraq's oil on the open market. Think of a prosperous and pro-western Iraq on the eastern flank of the middle east. All of this could add up to having an important ally in a part of the world where strategic oil reserves are vital to western economies. In our perfect western world, that reality has a dreamy quality about it.
But the reality could hit hard on our economy. The cost of this war will mostly be born by the American economy. This could force the American government to borrow heavily which could add up to some heavy inflationary pressures. Add this to the current malaise in the American economy and it doesn't bode well. American interest rates could rise, sending Canadian rates higher. All of this adds up to economic uncertainty, something almost sure to cost you in the pocketbook.
Two months ago, I flew over Baghdad, Iraq. I was on my way home from Bangladesh. I must admit as I passed that place 7 miles up in the air, I got a bit of a queasy feeling. All I could think about was why did we have to fly over this place. But as Baghdad faded out of view, my funny feeling went away. It was out of sight and out of mind.
That might not be the case by the end of the week. Iraq may be the news du jour for quite some time. And that queasy feeling over Baghdad? It seems to be coming back.



Philip Shaw, farms 830 acres near Dresden, Ontario. He holds a Masters of Agricultural Economics and Business Degree from the University of Guelph and is a well-known commentator on agricultural issues in print, on radio and over satellite in Canada and the United States. In the Chatham-Kent Times, Phil will use his frank and forthright writing style to address political and economic issues from the local to the international stage. He is a keen observer of political life at all levels, reads widely and has travelled the world to gather fodder for his column. See what's At Issue this week.